Shifting Sands of Glory: 2025 Heisman Trophy Odds, Week 4 Outloo

The college football season is a marathon, not a sprint, and no award embodies this truth more than the Heisman Trophy. What begins in August with a handful of preseason favorites can look drastically different by the end of September. As the calendar flips to Week 4, the 2025 Heisman race has been a perfect example of this volatility, with preseason frontrunners plummeting and new faces emerging from the shadows. The most dramatic shift, and the one that has captivated the college football world, is the re-evaluation of expectations for Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning.

Arch Manning: The Fall from Preseason Favorite

For all the hype, all the speculation, and all the “next-great-Manning” narratives, Arch Manning’s Heisman campaign has been a brutal reality check. The preseason favorite, who entered the season with odds as low as +600, has seen his Heisman hopes all but disappear. His odds have plummeted to a staggering +3500, and even as low as +4000 on some sportsbooks.

The numbers tell a difficult story. Through three games, Manning has completed just 55.3% of his passes for 579 yards, with six touchdowns and three interceptions. His performance against Ohio State in Week 1, a 14-7 loss where he completed just 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards, was a wake-up call. While he has shown flashes of his running ability, with 112 rushing yards and three touchdowns, his overall performance has been a far cry from the elite level that was expected.

The media, which had spent months building Manning into a Heisman frontrunner, has been quick to turn on him. Critics are now pointing to his “overhyped” status and the immense pressure that comes with the “Manning” name. While some analysts believe he still has time to develop and improve, his current trajectory has all but eliminated him from the Heisman conversation this season.

The New Frontrunners: A Miami-Oklahoma Showdown

As Manning’s star has dimmed, a new constellation of contenders has risen to the top. The current Heisman race is a fascinating battle between two quarterbacks who have led their teams to impressive starts: Miami’s Carson Beck and Oklahoma’s John Mateer.

Carson Beck (Miami): The Unlikely Favorite

Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, has been a revelation for the Miami Hurricanes. After entering the season with long-shot odds, he has vaulted to the top of the Heisman odds boards, with some sportsbooks listing him as the favorite at +750. Beck’s rise is a perfect blend of individual brilliance and team success. He has led the Hurricanes to a 3-0 record, including two ranked victories over Notre Dame and South Florida.

Beck’s statistics are a testament to his precision and efficiency. He has completed an astounding 78.3% of his passes for 812 yards and eight total touchdowns. While he has thrown two interceptions, his overall command of the Miami offense has been undeniable. He has demonstrated a knack for spreading the ball around to a deep receiver group, and his dual-threat ability has added a new dimension to the Hurricanes’ offense. Beck’s rise from transfer to Heisman frontrunner is the kind of underdog story that voters love, and if he can continue his stellar play against a tough SEC schedule, he will be a strong contender for the award.

John Mateer (Oklahoma): The Next Great Sooner Quarterback

John Mateer, the transfer from Washington State, has also emerged as a legitimate Heisman contender. He and the Oklahoma Sooners are off to a perfect 3-0 start, including a dominant 42-3 win over Temple. Mateer’s performance has been a mix of explosiveness and grit, and he has been a consistent playmaker for the Sooners’ offense.

His statistics, which include 944 passing yards and five touchdowns, are impressive. However, it is his dual-threat ability that truly separates him. He has rushed for 161 yards and four touchdowns, and his ability to extend plays with his legs has been a nightmare for opposing defenses. He has a tough road ahead, with a matchup against No. 22 Auburn, which will be a crucial test of his Heisman credentials. If he can continue to produce against tough SEC defenses, he will remain a strong contender.

Other Notable Contenders and a Surprise Wide Receiver

While Beck and Mateer have separated themselves from the pack, there are several other players who remain in the Heisman conversation.

• Dante Moore (Oregon): The Oregon quarterback is off to a fast start, leading a Ducks offense that is averaging 54 points per game. He has thrown for 657 yards and seven touchdowns, and his high completion percentage makes him a strong candidate.
• Marcel Reed (Texas A&M): The Texas A&M sophomore has been a breakout star, throwing for 869 yards and nine touchdowns. He has led the Aggies to a 3-0 record and will look to continue his impressive play against a tough SEC schedule.
• Julian Sayin (Ohio State): The freshman quarterback has been a picture of efficiency for the Buckeyes, completing nearly 79% of his passes for 779 yards and eight touchdowns. He has a strong case for the award, especially if he can lead the Buckeyes to a Big Ten championship.
• Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): The Ohio State wide receiver is the lone non-quarterback in the top tier of Heisman candidates. He has been a dominant force, with back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances and a record-breaking career start. While it is rare for a wide receiver to win the award, Smith’s play has been so exceptional that he remains a legitimate contender.

As the college football season enters Week 4, the Heisman Trophy race is wide open. The preseason favorites have faltered, and a new group of contenders has emerged. The next few weeks will be crucial, as the top candidates face tougher competition and the pressure of a Heisman campaign begins to mount.