Rivalry Week Rumbles: Clear Paths for Texas A&M and Alabama to the SEC Championship Game

Rivalry Week Rumbles: Clear Paths for Texas A&M and Alabama to the SEC Championship Game

 

The final week of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) regular season has arrived, and the stakes could not be higher. With the league having eliminated its divisional structure and adopting a single-standings format, the two coveted spots in the SEC Championship Game are still up for grabs among four teams. However, the paths for two of the biggest programs—the undefeated, No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (11-0, 7-0 SEC) and the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, 6-1 SEC)—are remarkably straightforward.

Both Texas A&M and Alabama control their own destiny heading into the final week of rivalry matchups. If both teams win their respective rivalry games, they will meet in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, establishing a clean, high-stakes final for the conference crown.

---

I. The SEC Standings Picture

 

Before detailing the scenarios, it’s essential to understand the current landscape of the SEC standings. The league’s new format pits the top two teams in the overall conference standings against each other in the title game.

As of the final regular-season week, the top contenders are:

Team	Overall Record	SEC Record	Key Head-to-Head Result
No. 3 Texas A&M	11-0	7-0	N/A (Undefeated)
No. 4 Georgia	10-1	7-1	Lost to Alabama (21-24)
No. 7 Ole Miss	10-1	6-1	Lost to Georgia (35-43)
No. 10 Alabama	9-2	6-1	Beat Georgia (24-21)

Georgia has already completed its eight-game SEC schedule, meaning its conference record of 7-1 is final. Their path relies entirely on the two 6-1 teams, Alabama and Ole Miss, faltering.

---

II. Texas A&M’s Path: Win and In

 

The Texas A&M Aggies hold the simplest and clearest path to their first-ever SEC Championship Game appearance. As the only undefeated team left in the conference and one of the last remaining in the country, their task is unambiguous: Beat your rival, and you’re in Atlanta.

The Game: No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0 SEC) at No. 17 Texas (5-2 SEC)

 

The renewal of the historic Lone Star Showdown rivalry against the Texas Longhorns holds ultimate stakes for the Aggies. A victory would not only conclude a perfect 8-0 SEC regular season but would also lock them into one of the two spots in the SEC Championship.

• A&M Clinches With:

  1. A win over Texas. (Achieves an 8-0 SEC record, securing the outright top spot in the standings.)

• A&M Can Still Back In With A Loss If:

  1. Auburn beats Alabama AND

  2. Mississippi State beats Ole Miss. (This creates a massive logjam where the Aggies’ 7-1 record would be the best among the 1-loss teams.)

Given their top-three College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking, a win for A&M would also guarantee them a top-four seed and an opening-round bye in the expanded College Football Playoff.

---

III. Alabama’s Path: Win and Control Tiebreakers

 

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits at a 6-1 conference record, tied with Ole Miss and one game behind Georgia and Texas A&M. Despite having two overall losses, their path is also remarkably clean due to the SEC’s specific tiebreaker rules, particularly the one involving the Cumulative Conference Winning Percentage of all Conference Opponents.

The Game: No. 10 Alabama (6-1 SEC) at Auburn (1-6 SEC) (The Iron Bowl)

 

The Tide travels to Auburn for the always unpredictable Iron Bowl. A win for Alabama would give them a final SEC record of 7-1, putting them in a multi-team tiebreaker with Georgia and potentially Ole Miss (if the Rebels also win).

• Alabama Clinches With:

  1. A win over Auburn AND Texas beats Texas A&M OR

  2. A win over Auburn AND Mississippi State beats Ole Miss OR

  3. A win over Auburn AND Alabama wins the resulting three-way tie with Georgia and Ole Miss (based on SEC Opponent Winning Percentage).

The last scenario is the most likely, assuming a three-way tie:

• The Three-Way Tie Scenario (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss): If Alabama beats Auburn, Ole Miss beats Mississippi State, and Texas A&M loses to Texas, all three teams would finish 7-1 in conference play. Because these three teams did not all play each other, the head-to-head tiebreaker is nullified. The tiebreaker proceeds to the Cumulative Conference Winning Percentage of all Conference Opponents. Current analysis suggests Alabama has the favorable strength of schedule (SOS) edge in this metric, which would likely allow the Tide to advance over Georgia and Ole Miss.

In essence, a victory in the Iron Bowl is the most significant step for Alabama, putting them in an extremely strong position to reach Atlanta.

---

IV. The Long-Shot Contenders: Georgia and Ole Miss

 

While Texas A&M and Alabama control their fate, Georgia and Ole Miss are clinging to life, needing help from their rivals.

🐶 No. 4 Georgia (7-1 SEC)

 

Georgia has finished its SEC schedule but still holds the second-best conference record. They need just one of the following events to occur to secure a spot:

• Texas beats Texas A&M (This creates a massive logjam that Georgia is expected to win via tiebreaker, or Ole Miss and Alabama also lose, allowing Georgia to finish in the top two.) OR

• Auburn beats Alabama. (A loss by Alabama guarantees Georgia finishes ahead of them and likely secures one of the two spots.)

🔵 No. 7 Ole Miss (6-1 SEC)

 

Ole Miss has the toughest path, as they need two upsets to go their way. They still need to beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl to get to 7-1.

• Ole Miss Clinches With:

  1. A win over Mississippi State AND

  2. Texas beats Texas A&M AND

  3. Auburn beats Alabama. (This is the cleanest path, as it removes both A&M and Alabama, allowing Ole Miss and Georgia to advance.) OR

  4. A win over Mississippi State AND Ole Miss wins the resulting three-way tie with Alabama/Georgia (which is currently considered an uphill battle due to opponent winning percentage).