Picking SEC Bowl Games Is Risky. But I’m Not Opting Out | Adams

Every December, columnists across the South face the same dangerous rite of passage: predicting the SEC’s bowl slate. With opt-outs, transfer portal chaos, coaching changes, and the expanded playoff muddying the waters, it’s become the journalistic equivalent of Russian roulette. Players declare for the draft mid-season, stars sit to protect NIL value, and motivation swings wildly depending on venue and matchup. Yet here I am—John Adams, longtime SEC observer—not opting out. I’ll pick all 13 SEC bowl games straight up, explain the reasoning, and accept whatever ridicule comes in January. Let’s roll.

The SEC landed a record 13 bowl bids in 2025, tied for the most ever by a single conference. From the playoff quarterfinal down to the lower-tier games, the league’s depth is on full display. But depth doesn’t guarantee wins. The opt-out era has flipped traditional logic: a 9-3 team missing three NFL-bound starters can suddenly become an underdog to a 7-5 opponent with nothing to lose.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal – Sugar Bowl

Texas vs. Georgia (January 1, New Orleans)

This is the rematch everyone wanted after Georgia edged Texas 30-15 in the SEC Championship. The Longhorns get quarterback Quinn Ewers back healthy, and Arch Manning’s late-season flashes add a wild card. Georgia, however, is without running back Trevor Etienne (draft declaration) and edge rusher Mykel Williams (injury). Kirby Smart’s defense is still elite, but Texas’s offensive line—finally healthy—should control the trenches this time.

Pick: Texas 27, Georgia 24 Steve Sarkisian gets his signature win, and the SEC takes an early playoff L.

First Round Playoff – ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa)

Alabama vs. Michigan (December 31)

Kaley Jalen Milroe declared for the draft, leaving Alabama with Ty Simpson at QB—a talented but inexperienced sophomore. Michigan’s defense remains stout up front, and while their offense isn’t flashy, running back Donovan Edwards is fully healthy. Alabama’s speed advantage shrinks without Milroe’s legs. Michigan grinds it out in a rock fight.

Pick: Michigan 20, Alabama 17 The Crimson Tide’s playoff streak ends with a whimper, and Nick Saban’s successor takes more heat.

Citrus Bowl – Orlando

Ole Miss vs. Iowa (January 1)

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are furious about missing the playoff despite 10 wins. Jaxson Dart is playing (he confirmed on Christmas Eve), and the offense is loaded. Iowa’s defense is ferocious, but their offense ranks dead last nationally in yards per play. Ole Miss scores early and often, then coasts.

Pick: Ole Miss 34, Iowa 13 Rebels cover easily. Kiffin spends the fourth quarter trolling on the sideline.

Orange Bowl (Playoff First Round)

LSU vs. Penn State (January 9, Miami)

Brian Kelly’s Tigers are without Heisman finalist Garrett Nussmeier (shoulder surgery) and top corner Zy Alexander (opt-out). Penn State gets Drew Allar back from a minor injury, and their defensive line dominates LSU’s depleted offensive front. James Franklin finally wins a big one.

Pick: Penn State 31, LSU 20 The Bayou Bengals’ season ends in disappointment—again.

Gator Bowl – Jacksonville

South Carolina vs. NC State (January 2)

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in America, riding LaNorris Sellers’ dual-threat magic and an improving defense. NC State is scrappy but outmanned. South Carolina’s momentum carries into the offseason.

Pick: South Carolina 30, NC State 20 Beamer Ball lives on.

Music City Bowl – Nashville

Missouri vs. Minnesota (December 30)

Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers lose star wideout Luther Burden III to the draft, but Brady Cook is playing and the defense is ferocious. Minnesota’s ground game is solid, but Mizzou’s pass rush overwhelms PJ Fleck’s line.

Pick: Missouri 27, Minnesota 17 The SEC’s streak of Music City dominance continues.

Texas Bowl – Houston

Texas A&M vs. West Virginia (December 31)

Mike Elko’s Aggies are motivated after a strong debut season. Quarterback Marcel Reed is electric, and the defense—led by Nic Scourton—is playoff-caliber. West Virginia’s offense stalls against A&M’s front.

Pick: Texas A&M 35, West Virginia 24 Aggies roll and build momentum into 2026.

Liberty Bowl – Memphis

Arkansas vs. Cincinnati (December 27)

Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks are without starting quarterback Taylen Green (transfer portal) and several defensive starters. Cincinnati, under Scott Satterfield, plays with house money. This one gets ugly.

Pick: Cincinnati 31, Arkansas 27 Hogs fans start calling for changes—again.

Las Vegas Bowl

Florida vs. USC (December 27)

Billy Napier’s Gators limp in at 7-5 with massive opt-outs: quarterback Graham Mertz (injury), running back Montrell Johnson (draft), and multiple linemen. Lincoln Riley’s Trojans, despite their own disappointments, have Miller Moss healthy and motivated.

Pick: USC 38, Florida 24 The Gators hit rock bottom. Napier’s seat boils over.

Birmingham Bowl

Vanderbilt vs. Tulsa (December 27)

Clark Lea’s Commodores are the feel-good story of the year—bowl eligible for the first time since 2018. Diego Pavia is playing, the defense is opportunistic, and Vanderbilt has nothing to lose. Tulsa is overmatched.

Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Tulsa 17 Commodores fans storm Broadway in celebration.

Gasparilla Bowl – Tampa

Kentucky vs. Tulane (December 20)

Mark Stoops’ Wildcats are without starting quarterback Brock Vandagriff (portal) and several defensive pieces. Tulane, fresh off an AAC title, is fully motivated and healthy.

Pick: Tulane 34, Kentucky 27 Stoops faces uncomfortable questions in Lexington.

Frisco Bowl

Auburn vs. North Texas (December 17)

Hugh Freeze’s Tigers are inconsistent but talented. Quarterback Payton Thorne is playing, and the defensive line dominates. North Texas puts up points but can’t stop Auburn’s run game.

Pick: Auburn 41, North Texas 31 Freeze gets a much-needed confidence boost.

Bahamas Bowl – Nassau

Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina (December 20)

Wait—this isn’t SEC. But the 13th SEC team? No, the league actually has 13 with the playoff inclusions counted separately. My mistake earlier. The actual 13th is…

Correction: The SEC has 11 traditional bowl teams + 2 playoff teams (Georgia, Texas) = 13 total postseason games.

Final Tally and Reflection

My predicted SEC bowl record: 6-7

That’s right—below .500. And honestly, that feels optimistic. The opt-outs are brutal: Milroe, Nussmeier, Burden, Etienne, multiple Florida and Arkansas pieces. Motivation matters more than ever in non-playoff bowls. Teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Auburn should win comfortably. The rest feel like coin flips leaning against the SEC.

Picking these games used to be easy money. The SEC dominated non-conference play, especially in bowls. But the transfer portal, NIL-driven opt-outs, and playoff expansion have leveled the field. A 7-5 SEC team missing half its starters isn’t automatically better than a hungry Group of 5 champion.

Still, I didn’t opt out. I made the picks, explained the logic, and I’ll stand by them—win or lose. That’s what we ask of the players, after all. Come January, feel free to remind me how wrong I was. Or, if the SEC somehow goes 10-3, buy me a beverage in Atlanta next fall.