Philadelphia Faces Denver, Aims for 4th Straight Win: 76ers vs. Nuggets Preview – January 5, 2026

The Philadelphia 76ers (19-14) return home to the Xfinity Mobile Arena (commonly referred to as Wells Fargo Center) on Monday, January 5, 2026, looking to extend their current three-game winning streak to four against a severely injury-plagued Denver Nuggets (23-12) squad. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the game exclusively streaming on Peacock as part of an NBA triple-header.

Philadelphia has found its groove recently, capping a successful road trip with impressive victories, including a 130-119 win over the New York Knicks where Tyrese Maxey dropped 36 points. The Sixers are finally benefiting from improved health, allowing their star-studded lineup to gel. Meanwhile, Denver is in the midst of a challenging Eastern Conference road swing and has been decimated by injuries, most notably the absence of reigning MVP Nikola Jokić. This cross-conference clash favors the surging 76ers heavily, but let’s dive deep into the matchup.

Current Betting Odds (as of January 4-5, 2026)

• Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 to -11.5 (FanDuel: -10.5; others up to -11.5)
• Moneyline: 76ers -550 to -625 | Nuggets +400 to +450
• Over/Under Total: 228.5 to 229.5 points

The line has steadily moved toward Philadelphia, reflecting Denver’s injury woes and the Sixers’ momentum. Implied probability gives Philly an 84-85% chance of victory.

Team Form and Overviews

Philadelphia 76ers: Riding Momentum into 2026

The Sixers enter 2026 on a high note, having won their last three games—all on the road—against tough competition: a 139-136 thriller over Memphis, a 123-108 rout of Dallas, and the aforementioned 130-119 triumph in New York. This streak has pushed them to 19-14 overall, good for fifth in the Eastern Conference and fourth in the Atlantic Division.

Key to their resurgence:

• Tyrese Maxey has been sensational, averaging 31.1 points per game (top-five league-wide), with recent explosions like 36 vs. Knicks and 34 vs. Mavericks.
• Joel Embiid (probable) is contributing 22.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, dominating when active.
• Rookie VJ Edgecombe adds 16.5 PPG with athleticism and defense.
• The offense ranks 16th (117.0 PPG), but defense is solid (15th in points allowed, strong in forcing turnovers).

Home performance has been middling (9-8), but with health improving under coach Nick Nurse, the Sixers are emphasizing ball movement and interior dominance. They’ve hit the over less at home (47.1%).

Denver Nuggets: Injury Crisis Threatens Strong Start

Despite a solid 23-12 record (fourth in the West), the Nuggets are reeling. They’re on a grueling road trip and have dropped recent games to Brooklyn and Cleveland without their full arsenal.

Strengths when healthy:

• Elite offense, leading the league in points and FG%.
• Jamal Murray stepping up hugely (25.4 PPG, 7.2 APG recently).

But injuries have crippled them:

• Nikola Jokić OUT (left knee hyperextension – re-evaluation in four weeks, likely out entire January).
• Jonas Valančiūnas OUT (right calf strain – 4 weeks).
• Cameron Johnson OUT (right knee).
• Others like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun questionable in recent reports.

Without Jokić—the offensive orchestrator and rebounding machine—Denver’s scoring and interior presence plummet. They’ve gone small-ball, relying on Murray, Peyton Watson, and Tim Hardaway Jr., but rebounding and paint protection suffer badly.

Road games often go over (65%), but shorthanded recent contests trend under.

Latest Injury Reports

76ers:

• Joel Embiid: Probable (knee management/ankle – expected to play limited but effective minutes).
• Kelly Oubre Jr.: OUT (left knee sprain).
• Relatively healthy otherwise.

Nuggets:

• Nikola Jokić: OUT (knee hyperextension).
• Jonas Valančiūnas: OUT (calf).
• Cameron Johnson: OUT (knee).
• Aaron Gordon: Questionable (hamstring).
• Christian Braun: Questionable (ankle).
• Jamal Murray: Probable (ankle).

Denver is missing its frontcourt entirely, forcing perimeter-heavy play.

Head-to-Head and Historical Context

These teams haven’t met yet this season. Historically, Denver holds a slight edge in recent regular-season games (6-4 last 10), but Philly dominates at home. Games are often competitive but lower-scoring with Embiid patrolling the paint.

Key Matchups and Tactical Breakdown

1. Paint Dominance: Embiid vs. No True Center
   • With no Jokić or Valančiūnas, Embiid should feast. Expect 25-30 points, 12+ rebounds, and easy lobs/dunks.
2. Guard Battle: Maxey vs. Murray
   • Both scorching hot. Maxey’s speed exploits tired Denver legs; Murray must carry scoring load (30+ potential).
3. Rebounding War
   • Massive edge to Philly. Denver struggles without Jokić’s boards.
4. Pace and Style
   • Sixers slow it down, pound inside.
   • Nuggets push for transition but lack finishers/rebounders.
5. Depth and Bench
   • Philly’s rotation deeper and healthier; Denver leaning on unproven pieces.
6. Coaching Adjustments
   • Nick Nurse’s schemes vs. Michael Malone’s improvisation without stars.
7. Fatigue Factor
   • Denver on road trip/back-to-back potential; Philly rested at home.
8. Three-Point Shooting
   • Nuggets may live/die by perimeter; Sixers defend the arc well.
9. Turnovers and Free Throws
   • Philly forces mistakes; Denver vulnerable without playmaker.
10. Fourth-Quarter Execution
    • Sixers’ stars close games better.

Statistical Trends and Advanced Metrics

• 76ers ATS: Strong as home favorites recently.
• Nuggets ATS: Struggling on road trip.
• Over/Under: Denver overs common, but without Jokić, unders hit more.
• Philly home unders frequent.
• Large spreads: Sixers cover double-digits vs. depleted foes.
• Offensive/Defensive Ratings: Philly climbs with health; Denver drops sharply sans Jokić.

Player Prop Spotlights

• Tyrese Maxey Over Points (~30.5): Unstoppable lately.
• Joel Embiid Over Rebounds (~10.5): No opposition inside.
• Jamal Murray Over Points (~28.5): Volume shooter in Jokić-less lineup.

Prediction and Betting Recommendations

The Nuggets are a resilient team, but without Jokić and their frontcourt, they’re outmatched against a motivated, healthier Sixers squad aiming for a statement home win. Philadelphia controls the glass, the paint, and the tempo, pulling away in the second half.

Predicted Final Score: 76ers 124, Nuggets 109

Top Picks:

• 76ers -11.5 (-110): Value on Philly covering at home vs. shorthanded opponent.
• Under 229.5: Jokić absence caps Denver scoring; recent trends support.
• Maxey Over Points: Easy exploitation of perimeter defense.
• Avoid Nuggets ML—high risk.