Kentucky Basketball: Analytics-Based Predictions for Top Five Offensive and Defensive Players

The Kentucky Wildcats have long been a powerhouse in college basketball, and under head coach Mark Pope, the team is poised for another strong season in 2024-25. Last season, Kentucky’s offense ranked among the best in the nation, but their defense lagged, often costing them in critical games. Coach Pope addressed this in the offseason by recruiting versatile players capable of excelling on both ends of the floor. Advanced analytics from platforms like EvanMiya.com and Bart Torvik provide insights into which players are expected to lead Kentucky in offensive and defensive efficiency. This article identifies the top five offensive and defensive players based on their projected contributions, supported by statistical metrics and recent game performances.

Offensive Players: Top Five Predictions

Kentucky’s offense is known for its fast-paced, high-scoring style, and this season’s roster is no exception. The following players are projected to be the top five offensive contributors based on analytics from EvanMiya.com and their recent performances.

1. Jaland Lowe

• Offensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 3.49

• Key Stats: Lowe, a transfer from Pittsburgh, is a dynamic point guard with exceptional playmaking ability. In recent games, he has averaged 15.2 points per game (PPG) and 6.1 assists, showcasing his ability to create for himself and others. His effective field goal percentage (eFG%) stands at 52.3%, reflecting his efficiency as a scorer.

• Role: Lowe is the primary ball-handler, orchestrating Kentucky’s fast-paced offense. His ability to penetrate defenses and distribute the ball makes him a cornerstone of the Wildcats’ attack. His high offensive rating reflects his impact in creating high-percentage shots, both for himself and teammates. In a recent game against South Carolina on February 8, 2025, Lowe’s playmaking was evident as he dished out eight assists in a decisive victory.

2. Otega Oweh

• Offensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.88

• Key Stats: Oweh, another transfer, brings athleticism and scoring versatility. He averages 13.8 PPG with a 50.1% eFG%. His ability to score off the dribble and in transition has been critical to Kentucky’s offensive success.

• Role: Oweh thrives in transition and as a slasher, often finishing at the rim or drawing fouls. Despite analytics suggesting he’s not a favorite due to inconsistent shooting from deep (31.2% from three), his ability to attack the basket makes him a valuable offensive weapon. His performance against Jackson State, where he scored 18 points on efficient shooting, highlights his offensive potential.

3. Koby Brea

• Offensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.75

• Key Stats: Brea, a sharpshooting guard, is one of the nation’s top three-point shooters, with a 41.7% three-point shooting percentage. He averages 12.5 PPG and is a floor-spacer who opens up driving lanes for teammates.

• Role: Brea’s elite shooting stretches defenses, creating opportunities for Kentucky’s slashers and post players. His ability to knock down catch-and-shoot threes makes him a critical component of the offense. In a game against Gonzaga on December 7, 2024, Brea hit four three-pointers, contributing to a narrow 90-89 victory.

4. Andrew Carr

• Offensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.60

• Key Stats: Carr, a versatile forward, averages 11.9 PPG and 5.8 rebounds per game. His ability to score inside and out (38.5% from three) adds flexibility to Kentucky’s offense.

• Role: Carr’s versatility allows him to play multiple positions, stretching the floor as a stretch-four or scoring in the post. His performance against Florida on January 4, 2025, where he scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds, underscores his offensive impact. His high basketball IQ and passing ability also make him a secondary playmaker.

5. Jaxson Robinson

• Offensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.45

• Key Stats: Robinson, a returning player from last season, averages 10.8 PPG and shoots 39.2% from three. His scoring off the bench provides a spark for Kentucky’s second unit.

• Role: As a sixth man, Robinson brings energy and scoring versatility. His ability to hit perimeter shots and create his own shot off the dribble makes him a valuable offensive contributor. His 14-point performance against Louisville on December 14, 2024, showcased his ability to change games off the bench.

Defensive Players: Top Five Predictions

Kentucky’s defense has seen a remarkable turnaround in 2024-25, with analytics platforms like Bart Torvik ranking the Wildcats’ defense ninth nationally, ahead of their offense (25th). The following players are projected to be the top five defensive contributors based on their defensive ratings and impact metrics.

1. Lamont Butler

• Defensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 3.22

• Key Stats: Butler, a transfer from San Diego State, is a lockdown perimeter defender. He averages 2.1 steals per game and holds opponents to a 34.7% shooting percentage when guarding them. Kentucky’s elite three-point defense (2nd nationally, holding opponents to 21.2% from three) is largely due to Butler’s perimeter tenacity.

• Role: Butler is the team’s primary on-ball defender, often tasked with guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player. His quickness and instincts disrupt passing lanes and force turnovers. In a game against Tennessee on January 28, 2025, Butler’s defense on their star guard limited them to 4-of-14 shooting, helping secure a 78-73 upset.

2. Otega Oweh

• Defensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 3.05

• Key Stats: Oweh’s athleticism translates to both ends of the floor, with 1.8 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. His ability to guard multiple positions adds versatility to Kentucky’s defense.

• Role: Oweh’s relentless energy and quick hands make him a disruptive force. His performance against Jackson State, where he recorded three steals and two blocks, highlights his defensive impact. Oweh’s ability to switch onto bigger players while maintaining perimeter defense is a key asset.

3. Amari Williams

• Defensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.95

• Key Stats: Williams, a rim-protecting center, averages 2.3 blocks per game and anchors Kentucky’s paint defense. The Wildcats rank 7th nationally in blocks (6.7 per game), largely due to Williams’ presence.

• Role: Williams is the backbone of Kentucky’s interior defense, deterring shots at the rim and cleaning up misses with 8.2 defensive rebounds per game. His performance against Alabama on January 18, 2025, where he blocked four shots, helped limit their paint scoring despite a high-scoring game.

4. Brandon Garrison

• Defensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.80

• Key Stats: Garrison, another big man, complements Williams with 1.9 blocks and 7.5 defensive rebounds per game. His mobility allows him to defend in space, a rarity for players of his size.

• Role: Garrison’s ability to protect the rim and rebound makes him a vital part of Kentucky’s defensive rebounding dominance (1st nationally with 35.2 defensive rebounds per game). His performance against Clemson on December 3, 2024, where he grabbed 10 defensive rebounds, helped limit second-chance points.

5. Ansley Almonor

• Defensive Rating (EvanMiya.com): 2.65

• Key Stats: Almonor, a forward, averages 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game. His versatility allows him to guard wings and bigs, contributing to Kentucky’s lockdown shooting defense (20th nationally, holding opponents to 36.5% field goal percentage).

• Role: Almonor’s length and instincts make him a valuable defender in Kentucky’s switching schemes. His ability to contest shots without fouling adds to his defensive value. In a game against Duke on November 12, 2024, Almonor’s defense on the wing helped limit their perimeter scoring in a 77-72 win.

Team Outlook and Analytical Insights

Kentucky’s balanced roster is a significant improvement over last season, where their defense ranked poorly in KenPom and other metrics. This year, analytics project the Wildcats to finish with a top-15 offense and defense, a combination that historically correlates with deep NCAA Tournament runs. Bart Torvik’s rankings suggest Kentucky’s defense (9th) could outshine their offense (25th), a testament to Coach Pope’s recruiting strategy.

The team’s defensive improvements are evident in their elite three-point defense, rim protection, and rebounding. Players like Butler and Oweh provide perimeter tenacity, while Williams and Garrison anchor the paint. Offensively, Lowe’s playmaking, Brea’s shooting, and Oweh’s slashing create a versatile attack that can exploit defenses in multiple ways.

Recent games, such as the 80-57 blowout against South Carolina on February 8, 2025, and the 78-73 upset over Tennessee on January 28, 2025, demonstrate Kentucky’s ability to dominate on both ends. However, challenges remain, as seen in losses to Alabama (97-102) and Mississippi (84-98), where defensive lapses in high-scoring games exposed areas for improvement.

The 2024-25 Kentucky Wildcats are a well-rounded team, with analytics highlighting their potential as a national contender. Jaland Lowe and Otega Oweh lead the offense with their scoring and playmaking, while Lamont Butler and Amari Williams anchor a defense that has climbed into the elite tier. With a balanced attack and a suffocating defense, Kentucky is poised for a deep tournament run if they can maintain consistency. As the season progresses, these top performers will be critical in determining whether the Wildcats can achieve their championship aspirations.