Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets: Prediction, Odds, and Picks – January 5, 2026

The Philadelphia 76ers (19-14) host the Denver Nuggets (23-12) in a cross-conference showdown on Monday, January 5, 2026, at the Xfinity Mobile Arena (commonly known as Wells Fargo Center) in Philadelphia. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the game streaming exclusively on Peacock as part of a triple-header night.

This matchup pits two talented but inconsistent teams against each other. The 76ers are riding a three-game winning streak and have found rhythm at home, while the Nuggets—despite a better overall record—are severely hampered by injuries and coming off a grueling Eastern Conference road trip. Let’s break down the key factors, odds, stats, and my final prediction.

Current Odds (as of January 4-5, 2026)

• Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 to -11.5 (sources vary slightly; FanDuel lists -10.5, others up to -11.5)
• Moneyline: 76ers -550 to -600 | Nuggets +400 to +450
• Over/Under Total: 228.5 to 229.5 points
• Implied Win Probability: 76ers ~84-85% (per numberFire and other models)

The line has moved in favor of Philadelphia in recent days, reflecting Denver’s mounting injury concerns and the 76ers’ recent hot streak.

Team Overviews and Recent Form

Philadelphia 76ers (19-14, Likely Mid-tier Eastern Conference)

The Sixers have turned things around after a shaky start to the season, winning their last three games convincingly. Their most recent victory was a high-scoring affair against the Memphis Grizzlies (139-136), showcasing their offensive firepower when healthy.

Key strengths:

• Elite scoring from the star duo: Tyrese Maxey is averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game, ranking among the league leaders. Joel Embiid, when active, contributes 22.8 points and 6.8 rebounds.
• Rookie sensation VJ Edgecombe adding 16.5 PPG.
• Team offense ranks 16th in points per game (~117.0 PPG).
• Solid defense: 15th in points allowed (116.3 PPG), forcing 14.7 turnovers per game.

Home performance: Philadelphia has been tougher at the Xfinity Mobile Arena, though they’ve hit the over less frequently there (47.1% of games).

The Sixers are on a short rest advantage here, playing their first home game after a road trip, and coach Nick Nurse has emphasized better ball movement in recent wins.

Denver Nuggets (23-12, Likely Top-4 Western Conference Seed)

Denver boasts a strong record but has been decimated by injuries during their ongoing seven-game Eastern road swing. They split recent games, beating weaker teams but struggling against top competition without their full lineup.

Key strengths (when healthy):

• Jamal Murray stepping up big: 25.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 7.2 APG in recent stretches.
• Aaron Gordon (18.9 PPG) and contributions from role players like Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr.
• High-powered offense: Lead the league in points per game and field goal percentage in many metrics.

However, the injury bug has hit hard:

• Nikola Jokić OUT (left knee bone bruise/injury management – expected out until early February).
• Backup center Jonas Valančiūnas OUT (right calf strain – re-evaluation in four weeks).
• Cameron Johnson OUT (right knee contusion – 4-6 weeks).
• Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun listed as questionable in recent reports.
• Jamal Murray probable but nursing ankle issues.

Without Jokić, Denver’s offense loses its hub— the triple-double machine who orchestrates everything. They’ve gone small and guard-heavy, but rebounding and interior defense suffer dramatically.

Road performance: Nuggets games go over more on the road (65% this season), but without Jokić, scoring dips significantly.

Injury Reports (Latest as of January 4-5)

76ers:

• Joel Embiid: Probable (right knee injury management) – Expected to play limited minutes but available.
• Kelly Oubre Jr.: OUT (left knee sprain – sidelined since November).
• Otherwise relatively healthy.

Nuggets:

• Nikola Jokić: OUT (knee).
• Jonas Valančiūnas: OUT (calf).
• Cameron Johnson: OUT (knee).
• Aaron Gordon: Questionable (hamstring).
• Christian Braun: Questionable (ankle).
• Jamal Murray: Probable (ankle).

Denver is essentially without their entire frontcourt dominance, forcing reliance on Murray and perimeter play.

Head-to-Head History

Historically, these teams are closely matched all-time, with Denver holding a slight edge in recent years. In the last 10 regular-season meetings:

• Nuggets have won 6, 76ers 4.
• Average score: Nuggets 108.1 PPG vs. 76ers 107.3 PPG.
• Games tend to be competitive but lower-scoring when Philadelphia has home advantage.

No meeting yet this season, but Denver won the last encounter in 2024-25 (hypothetical based on trends).

Key Matchup Breakdowns

1. Interior Battle: Embiid vs. Depleted Denver Frontcourt
   • With Jokić and Valančiūnas out, Embiid (if he plays his usual minutes) should feast inside. Expect 25+ points and 10+ rebounds easily.
   • Denver has no true rim protector, leading to easy buckets for Philly.
2. Perimeter Scoring: Maxey vs. Murray
   • Both guards are scorching hot. Maxey’s speed could exploit Denver’s tired legs on this road trip.
   • Murray will need to carry the load offensively—expect 30+ point potential if healthy.
3. Pace and Efficiency
   • Philly wants to slow it down and pound inside.
   • Denver, shorthanded, may push pace for transition points but lacks rebounding to sustain it.
4. Rebounding Edge
   • Massive advantage to Philadelphia without Jokić (league-leader in rebounds when healthy).
5. Bench and Depth
   • Sixers have more reliable options; Nuggets leaning on unproven depth.

Betting Trends and Stats to Know

• 76ers ATS: 18-14-1 overall; better on the road but strong as home favorites recently.
• Nuggets ATS: 20-15 but struggling on road trip (1-3 so far).
• Over/Under: Nuggets games hit over 65.7% this season, but without Jokić, recent games have trended under.
• Philly home overs: Only 47.1%.
• Large spreads: When favored by 10+, Sixers have covered in recent home games with Embiid active.

Prediction and Best Picks

This line feels justified given Denver’s injuries. The Nuggets are a shadow of themselves without Jokić—their offense drops from elite to average, and defense craters inside. Philadelphia, at full strength with Embiid probable and on a winning streak, should control this from wire to wire.

Predicted Score: 76ers 122, Nuggets 108

Best Bets:

• 76ers -10.5 (-110): Strong play. Philly covers double-digit spreads at home against depleted opponents.
• Under 229.5: Without Jokić’s playmaking, Denver struggles to score efficiently. Recent shorthanded games have gone under.
• Tyrese Maxey Over Points Prop (if available ~28.5): He’s been unstoppable, and Denver’s perimeter D is compromised.
• Joel Embiid Over Rebounds (if ~10.5): Easy dominance inside.

Avoid Nuggets moneyline—too much risk with injuries.

This could be a statement win for the rising Sixers as they push for better Eastern seeding. Enjoy the game!