Dodgers’ 2026 Projections Hint at Early Side Effects of Aging Roster
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2026 season attempting to navigate the precarious “twilight zone” of a dynasty. Having secured back-to-back World Series titles in 2024 and 2025, the franchise is arguably at its historical zenith. Yet, beneath the glittering surface of champagne celebrations and championship parades, the cold, hard logic of algorithmic projections is beginning to flash warning signs.
As the 2026 ZiPS and FanGraphs projections roll in, a sobering reality is setting in: the “Super-Team” is getting old. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Dodgers are projected to fall out of the top five in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) at nearly every position on the diamond, excluding first base, shortstop, and designated hitter. These projections hint that while the stars remain elite, the structural integrity of the roster is beginning to fray at the edges due to age and injury.
The “Under-30” Crisis
The most startling statistic from the Dodgers’ 2025 World Series roster was its age distribution. Of the 12 position players who hoisted the trophy, only four were under the age of 30: Ben Rortvedt, Justin Dean, Hyeseong Kim, and Andy Pages.
By the start of the 2026 season, that youth bridge has essentially collapsed:
-
The Departed: Ben Rortvedt and Justin Dean are no longer with the organization.
-
The Unproven: Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages remain, but both struggled significantly in 2025. Pages, in particular, was nearly ineffective at the plate for long stretches, raising questions about whether he is a true everyday starter.
This leaves the Dodgers with a “top-heavy” veteran core that is now entering the dangerous 33–37 age bracket. While Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith are still firmly in their physical primes, the surrounding infrastructure is comprised of players who are increasingly “day-to-day.”
The Big Three: Mortality of the Hall of Famers
The Dodgers’ success is built on the pillars of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernández. However, the 2026 projections reflect a growing concern about their durability.
| Player | Age (End of 2026) | Projection Concern |
| Freddie Freeman | 37 | Increasing lower-body injuries; scheduled “rest days” planned for 2026. |
| Mookie Betts | 33 | Defensive range at shortstop is declining; offensive “down year” in 2025. |
| Teoscar Hernández | 33 | High strikeout rate combined with slowing foot speed in the outfield. |
Freddie Freeman, in particular, is under the microscope. While Andrew Friedman has confirmed that Freeman will not require surgery this winter, the Dodgers have already announced plans to give him periodic “off days” throughout 2026—a notable shift for a player who famously prides himself on playing all 162 games. His inability to lock in for the 2026 World Baseball Classic further underscores a body that is beginning to protest the rigors of a six-month season.
The Infield “Black Hole” at Second Base
Nowhere is the aging roster more apparent than at second base. With the team opting for veteran security over youth, the 2026 depth chart is a revolving door of players past their athletic peak. Unless a trade for a younger asset like Brendan Donovan materializes, the Dodgers will cycle through:
-
Miguel Rojas (37): Re-signed for 2026, he remains the oldest position player on the team.
-
Tommy Edman (31): Dealing with recurring ankle issues that kept him on the bench for portions of 2025.
-
Kiké Hernández (34): A fan favorite whose offensive floor has dropped significantly in recent years.
FanGraphs currently ranks the Dodgers’ second base situation as one of the worst among projected playoff contenders. If Edman is forced to play center field to cover for defensive lapses there, the Dodgers will be relying on a 37-year-old Rojas to play 120+ games—a tall order for a middle infielder in the modern game.
The Pitching Paradox: A Rotation of Glass
If the offense is showing gray hairs, the starting rotation is a collection of high-priced porcelain. On paper, the 2026 Dodgers rotation is the best in baseball, featuring Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki.
However, the “age side effects” here manifest as a mandatory six-man rotation.
-
Ohtani’s Return: While Ohtani will pitch in 2026, the team will be extremely cautious following his second major elbow procedure.
-
Glasnow/Snell Durability: Both veterans (ages 32 and 33) have career histories of missing significant time.
-
The Retirement of Kershaw: For the first time in nearly 20 years, Clayton Kershaw is not on the roster, removing the “emotional floor” of the pitching staff.
The 2026 projections assume these pitchers will be elite on a per-inning basis, but they also project a massive workload for a bullpen that was recently thinned out by the non-tendering of Evan Phillips.
The Farm System: Help is Coming, But Not Yet
The Dodgers’ farm system remains elite, featuring prospects like Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope. However, these players are projected for 2027 arrivals. The 2026 season represents a “gap year” where the old guard must hold the line before the next generation of 20-year-olds is ready to take over.
The “Truth” for 2026 is that the Dodgers are effectively stuck. With so many stars locked into long-term, high-dollar contracts that take them into their late 30s, there is no easy way to “get younger” without trading away the very icons that define the franchise.
Leave a Reply